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Class standards

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Borges View Drop Down
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The Conrad Dobler of the Highland Games

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    Posted: 11/11/15 at 12:23pm

I’m currently teaching probability and part of the class syllabus includes teaching the students to use R (an open source statistical package) which means I had to learn R myself and I decided to take the opportunity to learn it by doing something interesting, namely updating the so-called ‘class standards’. With all of the data now available on the NASGA database this is now far more accurate than it has ever been in the past.

Methodology

I pulled all the data from the 2015 rankings for men (I pulled both pro and am and combined them) from the NASGA database and did some data analysis. In the past I have done this (last time was 1999 for the SAAA) by setting the class standards to correspond to percentile rankings. (Just for background, a percentile is statistical ranking method. For example, given a set of scores, the 60th percentile is a score such that 60% of the scores in the set are lower and 40% are higher. If your score is above the 80th percentile then you are in the top 20%.) Back in 1999 I did this by setting the Pro standard to the 98th percentile, the A standard to the 70th percentile, and the B standard to the 40th percentile. However, the dataset I had back then was very small and ONLY included amateur athletes. Since the data set now includes Pro results I have changed the protocol slightly so that I am setting the Pro standard to the 90th percentile, the A standard to the 70th percentile, and the B standard to the 40th percentile. The raw numbers are fractional and that is rather useless so the second part of the protocol is to round the standard UP to a whole number of feet since this provides a simple listing of distances that are all at or above the percentile standards (the exception is sheaf because all of the numbers were less than one inch away from a whole foot, in that case I truncated). Note that all of these percentiles are set based on best throws from the database but the expectation on moving up is that your average throw in an event needs to be above these lines to indicate a change in class. Here is the summary:

 

 

 

Braemar

Open

LWFD

HWFD

LH

HH

WOB

 

Sheaf

Pro

 

36

44

66

33

114

91

14

28

A

 

31

37

54

26

94

75

12

24

B

 

26

32

43

21

79

63

11

19

 

Cheers,

Carlos



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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote phatmiked Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 11/11/15 at 8:14pm
very cool
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Wayne Hill Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 11/12/15 at 6:55am
All three groups have the same explosiveness deficit in hammers (9.7-9.8%), which is remarkable.

Also interesting is that the HWFD numbers for A's and B's lag behind LWFD (in terms of proportionality to weight) for Ams. That's certainly believable, because Ams often have trouble handling the 56. 

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Borges Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 11/12/15 at 9:41am
Wayne,

  I assume you mean 79.7-79.8% and yes that is remarkably consistent. Biggest change from the old calculation was in Braemar stone because the last time I did this was using SAAA data from the 90s when the SAAA used a 20.2# Braemar stone which is too light. The other thing that changed a bit was the HWFD which I always questioned in the past and it seems clear now that it was an artifact of the order statistic and data set that I used in the 1999 computation.

  Worth noting the the 90th percentile reaches well into the top amateurs as this year's NASGA rankings have 63 pros and 1265 amateurs listed so the amateurs account for slightly more than 95% of the data.

  I should also add that the threshold assumption I use of moving up when your average throws are above the n'th percentile of best throws has some reasoning behind it (I only note this because people frequently don't understand the reasoning behind things, like why my rule set has measurements to the lowest half inch which is a story for another day). Anyway, the logic is that on an average day a legitimate pro level athlete should be able to beat 90% of all athletes on their best day. And so on.
Cheers,

Carlos



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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Ali.G Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 11/12/15 at 4:09pm
haha good on you Carlos looks like I'm just about an "A" nowadays but still got some Pro numbers in me. 
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Borges Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 11/12/15 at 5:41pm
Good to hear from you old man. Still not smart enough to retire eh?

Incidentally, I did have to make some other adjustments just based on reality. I reset Robby Krieger's 59'3" HWFD world record to 29'3" since it's hard to believe a guy with a PR of 58' with the LWFD was crushing the WR by 10' even if he did play guitar for The Doors. Also I reset Rich Casas' 61'4.5" HWFD even better world record to 31' 4.5" since there is simply no way that happened at in the amateur class at Pleasanton without Mat$o and the other pros noticing. Sorry Rich, you're awesome but you ain't that awesome.
Cheers,

Carlos



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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote MrPeanut Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 11/12/15 at 6:39pm
What would science be without a nice stats analysis.

Now you need to do it for the old farts class.
Even a broken old man can learn to throw a hammer. I ain't dead yet!
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Wayne Hill Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 11/13/15 at 6:52am
Originally posted by Carlos Carlos wrote:

Wayne,

I assume you mean 79.7-79.8% and yes that is remarkably consistent.

I was looking at a related measure, the explosiveness deficit, which I calculated as 

D_e = (HH/LH * 22/16) - 1

That is, "how much lower is the actual LH throw than I'd estimate from a HH throw?", which would be attributed to an inability to move quickly enough to accelerate the lighter implement with the same power as the heavier implement.

Anyway, it's remarkable that all three groups had the same value: compare that to the ratio of deadlift to full clean, for example, which would vary tremendously from B level to elite level.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Beau Fay Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 11/13/15 at 1:11pm
Originally posted by Borges Borges wrote:

even if he did play guitar for The Doors

Best thing on NASGA in a long time.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote dWood Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 11/13/15 at 3:30pm
Originally posted by Wayne Hill Wayne Hill wrote:

Originally posted by Carlos Carlos wrote:

Wayne,

I assume you mean 79.7-79.8% and yes that is remarkably consistent.

I was looking at a related measure, the explosiveness deficit, which I calculated as 

D_e = (HH/LH * 22/16) - 1

That is, "how much lower is the actual LH throw than I'd estimate from a HH throw?", which would be attributed to an inability to move quickly enough to accelerate the lighter implement with the same power as the heavier implement.

Anyway, it's remarkable that all three groups had the same value: compare that to the ratio of deadlift to full clean, for example, which would vary tremendously from B level to elite level.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote vonguinness Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 11/16/15 at 10:14am
Originally posted by Beau Fay Beau Fay wrote:

Originally posted by Borges Borges wrote:

even if he did play guitar for The Doors

Best thing on NASGA in a long time.

agreed.

jammin on the one.
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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote WALLY.OLECIK Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 2/28/16 at 8:37pm
Originally posted by MrPeanut MrPeanut wrote:

Now you need to do it for the old farts class.

"Old farts" are divided by age so that wouldn't be needed but move up marks would be handy for the Women's classes! 
16lb-hammer(at)sshga.org

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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote Borges Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 5/11/16 at 12:42pm

Alright Wally. Here you go based on the 2015 rankings for women. There seem to be some problems with the data. First, the points don't quite match the distances but I assume that the points are still calculated by dividing by the men's world record in each event and multiplying by 1000. Second there seem to be a number of ladies who are throwing odd weight implements but not segregating those scores (e.g. I believe Mona Malec's 19'6" WOB was thrown with a 21# weight). Anyway, those issues being ignored...

Methodology

Same as for the men. Sheaf numbers were rounded down instead of up since all were within a couple of inches of the lesser number.

 Women's move-up standards

 

 

Braemar

Open

LWFD

HWFD

LH

HH

WOB

 

Sheaf

Pro

 

27

35

59

35

78

65

14

22

A

 

22

28

45

27

63

49

12

16

B

 

18

23

35

20

50

38

10

12

 

Cheers,

Carlos



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Post Options Post Options   Thanks (0) Thanks(0)   Quote WALLY.OLECIK Quote  Post ReplyReply Direct Link To This Post Posted: 5/11/16 at 5:49pm
Thanks, Carlos!  Just part of the reason that you're the man!!  l'm sure that this guide will be put to good use, especially by me.
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