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Borges
Postaholic The Conrad Dobler of the Highland Games Joined: 8/30/04 Location: Jamaica Status: Offline Points: 2188 |
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Posted: 11/11/15 at 12:23pm |
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I’m currently teaching probability and part of the class syllabus includes teaching the students to use R (an open source statistical package) which means I had to learn R myself and I decided to take the opportunity to learn it by doing something interesting, namely updating the so-called ‘class standards’. With all of the data now available on the NASGA database this is now far more accurate than it has ever been in the past. Methodology I pulled all the data from the 2015 rankings for men (I pulled both pro and am and combined them) from the NASGA database and did some data analysis. In the past I have done this (last time was 1999 for the SAAA) by setting the class standards to correspond to percentile rankings. (Just for background, a percentile is statistical ranking method. For example, given a set of scores, the 60th percentile is a score such that 60% of the scores in the set are lower and 40% are higher. If your score is above the 80th percentile then you are in the top 20%.) Back in 1999 I did this by setting the Pro standard to the 98th percentile, the A standard to the 70th percentile, and the B standard to the 40th percentile. However, the dataset I had back then was very small and ONLY included amateur athletes. Since the data set now includes Pro results I have changed the protocol slightly so that I am setting the Pro standard to the 90th percentile, the A standard to the 70th percentile, and the B standard to the 40th percentile. The raw numbers are fractional and that is rather useless so the second part of the protocol is to round the standard UP to a whole number of feet since this provides a simple listing of distances that are all at or above the percentile standards (the exception is sheaf because all of the numbers were less than one inch away from a whole foot, in that case I truncated). Note that all of these percentiles are set based on best throws from the database but the expectation on moving up is that your average throw in an event needs to be above these lines to indicate a change in class. Here is the summary:
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Cheers,
Carlos "Live free or die" |
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phatmiked
Postaholic Joined: 4/13/07 Status: Offline Points: 2321 |
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very cool
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Wayne Hill
Postaholic Joined: 8/29/04 Location: United States Status: Offline Points: 2935 |
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All three groups have the same explosiveness deficit in hammers (9.7-9.8%), which is remarkable.
Also interesting is that the HWFD numbers for A's and B's lag behind LWFD (in terms of proportionality to weight) for Ams. That's certainly believable, because Ams often have trouble handling the 56. |
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"We may be small, but we're slow." - MIT Rugby
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Borges
Postaholic The Conrad Dobler of the Highland Games Joined: 8/30/04 Location: Jamaica Status: Offline Points: 2188 |
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Wayne,
I assume you mean 79.7-79.8% and yes that is remarkably consistent. Biggest change from the old calculation was in Braemar stone because the last time I did this was using SAAA data from the 90s when the SAAA used a 20.2# Braemar stone which is too light. The other thing that changed a bit was the HWFD which I always questioned in the past and it seems clear now that it was an artifact of the order statistic and data set that I used in the 1999 computation. Worth noting the the 90th percentile reaches well into the top amateurs as this year's NASGA rankings have 63 pros and 1265 amateurs listed so the amateurs account for slightly more than 95% of the data. I should also add that the threshold assumption I use of moving up when your average throws are above the n'th percentile of best throws has some reasoning behind it (I only note this because people frequently don't understand the reasoning behind things, like why my rule set has measurements to the lowest half inch which is a story for another day). Anyway, the logic is that on an average day a legitimate pro level athlete should be able to beat 90% of all athletes on their best day. And so on.
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Cheers,
Carlos "Live free or die" |
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Ali.G
Senior Member World Champ - 95 Joined: 8/29/04 Status: Offline Points: 569 |
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haha good on you Carlos looks like I'm just about an "A" nowadays but still got some Pro numbers in me.
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Borges
Postaholic The Conrad Dobler of the Highland Games Joined: 8/30/04 Location: Jamaica Status: Offline Points: 2188 |
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Good to hear from you old man. Still not smart enough to retire eh?
Incidentally, I did have to make some other adjustments just based on reality. I reset Robby Krieger's 59'3" HWFD world record to 29'3" since it's hard to believe a guy with a PR of 58' with the LWFD was crushing the WR by 10' even if he did play guitar for The Doors. Also I reset Rich Casas' 61'4.5" HWFD even better world record to 31' 4.5" since there is simply no way that happened at in the amateur class at Pleasanton without Mat$o and the other pros noticing. Sorry Rich, you're awesome but you ain't that awesome.
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Cheers,
Carlos "Live free or die" |
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MrPeanut
Senior Member Joined: 7/04/14 Status: Offline Points: 233 |
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What would science be without a nice stats analysis.
Now you need to do it for the old farts class. |
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Even a broken old man can learn to throw a hammer. I ain't dead yet!
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Wayne Hill
Postaholic Joined: 8/29/04 Location: United States Status: Offline Points: 2935 |
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I was looking at a related measure, the explosiveness deficit, which I calculated as
That is, "how much lower is the actual LH throw than I'd estimate from a HH throw?", which would be attributed to an inability to move quickly enough to accelerate the lighter implement with the same power as the heavier implement. Anyway, it's remarkable that all three groups had the same value: compare that to the ratio of deadlift to full clean, for example, which would vary tremendously from B level to elite level.
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"We may be small, but we're slow." - MIT Rugby
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Beau Fay
Senior Member Call me Beauregard. Joined: 7/25/06 Location: Guadeloupe Status: Offline Points: 383 |
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Best thing on NASGA in a long time.
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"Some people like to go out dancing... other people like us, we gotta work." -Lou Reed
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dWood
Postaholic Joined: 8/29/04 Location: United States Status: Offline Points: 5110 |
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JUST BRING IT /
SPEED KILLS..BUT STRENGTH PUNISHES |
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vonguinness
Postaholic Joined: 9/01/08 Status: Offline Points: 1643 |
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agreed. |
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jammin on the one.
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WALLY.OLECIK
Postaholic Joined: 10/10/08 Location: W. Seattle, WA Status: Offline Points: 1594 |
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"Old farts" are divided by age so that wouldn't be needed but move up marks would be handy for the Women's classes! |
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16lb-hammer(at)sshga.org
"Try not. Do or do not. There is no 'try!'" Yoda |
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Borges
Postaholic The Conrad Dobler of the Highland Games Joined: 8/30/04 Location: Jamaica Status: Offline Points: 2188 |
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Alright Wally. Here you go based on the 2015 rankings for women. There seem to be some problems with the data. First, the points don't quite match the distances but I assume that the points are still calculated by dividing by the men's world record in each event and multiplying by 1000. Second there seem to be a number of ladies who are throwing odd weight implements but not segregating those scores (e.g. I believe Mona Malec's 19'6" WOB was thrown with a 21# weight). Anyway, those issues being ignored... Methodology Same as for the men. Sheaf numbers were rounded down instead of up since all were within a couple of inches of the lesser number.
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Cheers,
Carlos "Live free or die" |
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WALLY.OLECIK
Postaholic Joined: 10/10/08 Location: W. Seattle, WA Status: Offline Points: 1594 |
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Thanks, Carlos! Just part of the reason that you're the man!! l'm sure that this guide will be put to good use, especially by me.
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16lb-hammer(at)sshga.org
"Try not. Do or do not. There is no 'try!'" Yoda |
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