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wallyworld
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Joined: 3/13/06 Location: United States Status: Offline Points: 1497 |
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Posted: 12/19/06 at 7:44pm |
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I'm afraid that here's what's gonna' happen. We'll end up with a formula that's so complex that very few A.D.s will bother with it OR absolutely nothing changes! I think that McSanta was onto something at the beginning of this thread!
Don't forget what the original goal was. A simple tool to use to determine the difficulty of turning one caber as opposed to another caber. Not what it takes to launch it into orbit. Maybe the multiplier should not be "2," it could be as low as 1.01 or an amount higher than 2. Just start with a reasonable number. This is certainly not without precedence! RMSA has tinkered with the formula since its conception. They've changed the multiplier and the scoring points in an attempt to make it more workable. Remember what Einstein said, "Keep it simple, but not too simple!" |
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"TRY NOT. DO OR DO NOT. THERE IS NO 'TRY'." Yoda
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McSanta
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Joined: 4/12/05 Location: United States Status: Offline Points: 1595 |
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Posted: 12/21/06 at 10:10am |
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There seems to be agreement that the Bradshaw formula captures the elements that should be used to rate/rank a caber. We also seem to agree that the formula does not give enough weight to those with longer cabers or to much weight with those with shorter cabers, so I suggested in the earlier post a simple way to adjust the Bradshaw formula. As it was pointed out, the parameter or factor I used is probably not correct (since I pulled it out of the air). As a trained statistician, I would love to have data to fit a model to. The problem is what data should I be using?
I will take Waynes idea one step further:
Either do this retroactively from last year's score sheets or make an effort to do it in the up coming season. At the end of the season, use this information to rank the cabers from easiest to hardest to turn in each class by a measure = successes divided by attempts. From this point, we modify the Bradshaw formula in a manner that produces a score that with luck will closely reflect the rankings.
Edited by McSanta |
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Mark McVey
"The work of science is to substitute facts for appearances and demonstrations for impressions." -John Ruskin |
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